Iraq's new federalism law is probably not the immediate answer to sectarian violence

With its 18 month time period before the process for creating autonomous regions can begin, plus however long it takes for the actual region-joining process itself to take place, the new Iraqi federalism law probably is not the immediate solution to that country's problem of sectarian violence, if it ever was.

Hopefully, another solution can be found before this law eventually takes effect. Baker and his group don't seem to see federalism as a viable solution, so federalism as a solution probably isn't coming from the American side either.

But still, it was an impressive show of political will and talent by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and whoever else was involved in getting the bill passed. Only a few weeks ago, the Sunnis were saying that the bill had no chance at all of passage.

The Sunnis and others are cautioning of a possible rise in sectarian tension because of the bill's passage and this caution should be taken seriously. It may take as much political will and talent for the new law to be successfully implemented as it took for its passage.

One possible area of conflict might be what is happening in Kirkuk where the dominant Kurds had been using coercive measures against the Sunnis and others in order to increase their chances of annexing Kirkuk to Kurdistan. Iraq's national government should take pre-emptive measures to lessen the possibility of a Kirkuk-like situation occurring in provinces where some groups may favor joining an autonomous region and others do not.

related postings
[1] Iraq passes preliminary federalism bill, despite walk-out by Sunnis and some Shiites. October 12, 2006.
[2] Baker says federalism probably not the answer. October 10, 2006.
[3] Iraqi troops try to stem violence in Kurd-dominated Kirkuk / Kurds could have behaved better. October 08, 2006.

posted: friday, october 13, 2006, 5:34 PM ET
update: friday, october 13, 2006, 5:41 PM ET