Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Sunnis seemingly unhappy with offer of proportionate share of oil revenue, despite having little oil in their region

"Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq’s national security adviser, seemed to set out a Shiite vision when he said that while Shiites “have the numbers” in Baghdad, Sunnis who joined in building the new Iraq could look forward to “sharing the wealth” in oil.
But he implied that Sunnis were having difficulty reconciling to the new political realities. “Some of these politicians are not prepared, mentally or psychologically, to make the compromises necessary for us to live cohabitively,” he said.
. . . Nearly a year after national elections, the Sunnis, and not just the insurgents, remain unreconciled to the loss of primacy they enjoyed for generations — and to the loss of revenue they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein. 'The problem is that in 2003 the Sunnis got 70 percent of the oil, and now they are being asked to take 20 percent,' Mr. Galbraith said. *
. . . The Iraqi Constitution, narrowly adopted last year, envisages a formula for dividing the revenues among provinces or regions proportional to the populations in each area, with some adjustments." [1]

A US Government map says that Iraq is 20% Sunni Arabs. [2] GlobalSecurity.org says that "Sunni Arabs are approximately 15 percent" [3] and the Times of India says "roughly" 12 percent. [4]

"Iraq has for centuries been ruled by Sunnis. Democracy has now empowered the Shia majority, and Sunnis fear the consequences.
The biggest oilfields in the country are in the Shia south, and the rest are in the northern Kurdish region. There is no oil in the Sunni triangle in the middle of the country." [4]

"Sunni Arab leaders [also] fear that any plan to divide Iraq into regions would eventually shift control of its oil wealth to the Kurds in the north and the Shiites in the south, leaving them with the relatively barren central and western regions." [5] **

"Meanwhile, the Shiites, or at least the leaders of the religious parties that control the government, have become increasingly strident in insisting that after generations of Sunni domination, it is now their turn to rule." [1]

footnotes
*
Mr. Galbraith is Peter W. Galbraith, author of The End of Iraq. [1]
** I'm not sure if the 20% oil revenue being offered the Sunnis is guaranteed and not vulnerable to eventual loss to the Shiites and Kurds.

source
[1] The New York Times. U.S. Envoy Arrives in Iraq as Tough Options Loom. October 31, 2006.
[2] BBC News. Living in Iraq: People. No date.
[3] GlobalSecurity.org. Sunni Islam In Iraq. No date.
[4] The Times of India. The Shia-Sunni battle for oil. October 1, 2006.
[5] The New York Times. In Victory for Shiite Leader, Iraqi Parliament Approves Creating Autonomous Regions. October 12, 2006.

posted: wednesday, november 1, 2006, 10:37 AM ET
update: saturday, november 11, 2006, 5:37 AM ET

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