Why democratizing Iraq could be a bad idea

"Rapid democratization . . . could be positively harmful in Iraq . . . In a communal civil war . . . rapid democratization can further polarize already antagonistic sectarian groups. In an immature polity with little history of compromise, demonizing traditional enemies is an easy -- and dangerous -- way to mobilize support from frightened voters . . . (E)merging democracies are unusually bellicose. Political reform is critical to resolving communal wars, but only if it comes at the right time, after some sort of stable communal compromise has begun to take root." [1]

"What makes Iraq different and a particularly difficult case is that for the first time the United States has tried to put a society back together without securing the cooperation, however grudging, of the principal neighbors of the state in question . . . The United States . . . invade(d) Iraq with the intention of making that state a (democratization) model for the Middle East, promising that success in Iraq would be followed by efforts to transform the political systems of Iraq's neighbors. This was not a vision any of those regimes was likely to embrace. Nor have they . . . Unless Washington can craft a vision of Iraq and of its neighborhood that all the governments of the region can buy into, it will have no chance of securing those governments' help in holding that country together." [2]

source
[1] Foreign Affairs. Seeing Baghdad, thinking Saigon. March/April 2006.
[2] Foreign Affairs. What to do in Iraq: A roundtable. July/August 2006.

posted: july 21, 2006, 6:52 PM ET
update: july 21, 2006, 7:37 PM ET