Gemayel conspiracy theories

Gemayel's allies

"In the Shiite southern suburbs, Hezbollah's stronghold, shops stayed open Thursday despite a three-day period of mourning announced after Gemayel's death. As the funeral began, many watched scenes a few miles away unfold on television. Suspicion ran deep that Gemayel's allies, not Syria, were behind the killing, given the way his death has bolstered Hezbollah's opponents and put the organization on the defensive, forcing it to delay its own protests many had expected to begin this week." [1]

"The simmering struggle flared this month when Hezbollah and its Christian ally, Michel Aoun, demanded greater representation in the cabinet. Four rounds of talks failed, and two Hezbollah ministers, three other Shiites and an allied politician resigned on Nov. 11, depriving the cabinet of its Shiite representation and the symbolic sectarian consensus on which Lebanese politics depends.
Two days later, the depleted cabinet endorsed a U.N. proposal for an international tribunal to try suspects in Hariri's death, a step Syria has adamantly resisted. This weekend, in another escalation, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah insisted that the government resign or hold early parliamentary elections. Otherwise, he said, his followers would conduct days, even weeks of protests to bring the government down." [2]

syria

"U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has diligently and courageously pursued another course in dealing with Syria's systematic use of violence to regain control over Lebanon and the fortunes in smuggling drugs and arms that Syrian politicians and generals generate from their neighbor.
Citing the conditions created by the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, Lebanon's former prime minister, in February 2005 as a threat to international peace, Annan creatively pushed for an international criminal investigation and an international tribunal to try the case. Syrian officials are prime suspects in that crime and are widely believed to be behind the assassinations of at least four other advocates of Lebanese independence that followed Hariri's murder.
The killing of Gemayel, a member of the anti-Syrian coalition headed by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, bears the hallmarks of a Syrian "initiative" to block the U.N. effort. And the murder came as Syria was reestablishing diplomatic relations with Iraq after 24 years of estrangement. This translation of Syrian actions quickly made its way through the Middle East: "You want help in Iraq? It will cost you Lebanon. For starters." That is realpolitik and real communication, Assad-style." [3]

sources
[1] The Washington Post. At Lebanese Funeral, a Show of Force Against Syria: Gemayel's Assassination Highlights Escalating Conflict Over Country's Direction. November 24, 2006.
[2] The Washington Post. Fears of Civil Strife Rise in Lebanon: Christian Cabinet Member Pierre Gemayel, Killed by Gunmen, Was Critic of Syria. November 22, 2006.
[3] The Washington Post. Realism, and Values, in Lebanon. November 26, 2006.

posted: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:53 PM ET
update: wednesday, november 29, 2006, 3:49 PM ET

Lebanon and civil war

"Many at the rally [for assassinated Lebanese Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel] dismissed the notion of civil war. As far apart as they are, many said, they have learned their lesson.
'That's just forbidden,' said Haifa, one of those at the square. 'Me, my family, my relatives, we wouldn't take part unless the door was opened right in front of us. We're not going to fall into this trap.'
At the other end of the square, George Khouri, a 29-year-old former Christian militiaman, wasn't so sure.
Why not? he shrugged. 'It would end all these small wars. One would win and one would lose, and then we would divide the country.'
He grinned. 'It's already partitioned anyway.' " [1]

Why not split the country without a civil war, if that's what they want? If one side wants to split and the other doesn't, why would the side that doesn't want to keep the side that does in a forced relationship? It's like slavery or a bad marriage.

source
The Washington Post. At Lebanese Funeral, a Show of Force Against Syria: Gemayel's Assassination Highlights Escalating Conflict Over Country's Direction. November 24, 2006.

posted: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:42 PM ET
update: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:58 PM ET

Gemayel assassination partly due to U.S. policy, some say

"The bullets that raked [Lebanon cabinet minister Pierre] Gemayel's car also fired on U.S. policy, analysts say.
'The bullets were meant for an outspoken critic of Syria. The Cedar Revolution is seen as an extension of American power, so the assassination of Gemayel was by extension a way of striking the U.S. as well,' said Augustus Richard Norton, a former U.N. peacekeeper in Lebanon and now a professor at Boston University.
Added Lebanese columnist Rami Khouri, currently on a speaking tour in the United States: 'This is the new Cold War.'
U.N. Ambassador John R. Bolton said Gemayel's assassination brought new attention to the danger that Syria and Iran are attempting, through Lebanese allies such as Hezbollah, to conduct a coup d'etat against the pro-Western government led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora."

source
The Washington Post. Assassination Increases Tensions With Syria, Iran. November 22, 2006.

posted: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:25 PM ET