The Arab League solution

"PRESIDENT BUSH seems not to have noticed, but what stands between hostile sectarian forces and the resumption of all-out civil war in Lebanon is the Arab League, whose diplomacy 17 years ago put an end to a conflict in which tens of thousands of Lebanese died. Is there not a lesson here, for the president and the Democratic Congress, that is applicable to Iraq?
. . . The Arab League’s Baghdad offices are recognized by the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, has strongly supported Iraq’s involvement with the Arab League. Amr Moussa, the Arab League’s secretary general, has had an open door not just to Iraqi officials but also to Moktada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite leader, and to Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country’s most powerful cleric, who has never received an American official. The Iraqi foreign minister, a Kurd, has participated regularly in Arab League meetings.
To be sure, the Arab League cannot offer miracles. . . . But with an invitation from the American president, it could immediately get to work at mediating the conflict."

Op-ed by Milton Viorst

source
Viorst, Milton. (The New York Times). January 30, 2007. A League of Their Own.

posted: thursday, february 1, 2007, 3:22 AM ET

tags: iraq milton viorst arab league

Lebanese Shiites suspect U.S. encouraging tension

"From Hezbollah's leaders to Shiites in the street, many speculate that the United States is encouraging the Sunni-Shiite tension as a way to blunt the growing profile of largely Shiite Iran. But there is worry, too, that whatever the design, Lebanon is too divided, too weak, too reflexive in its loyalty to its clannish leaders to withstand the repercussions of sectarian strife.
'Curse whoever awakened it!' read Friday's headline in as-Safir, one of Beirut's main daily newspapers."

source
Shadid, Anthony. (The Washington Post). Along Beirut's Line of Confrontation. January 27, 2007.

posted: sunday, january 28, 2007, 9:25 PM ET

tags: lebanon conspiracy

The "let them fight it out" solution

"In historical context, the country [Iraq] is not much different from others that have emerged from decades of dictatorship and tried to sort out a new political status quo among multiple competing ethnic groups. Yugoslavia began to break down in 1991; despite repeated Western interventions, the bloodshed continued until the end of the decade. The wars over Congo's future began in 1994 with the end of the Mobuto dictatorship and didn't end until 2003. Lebanon's civil war began in 1976 and ended in 1989.
As the behavior of the Maliki government and its Sunni enemies has made painfully clear, Iraq is nearer the beginning than the end of its sorting out. Each of the main sides -- Shiite, Sunni and Kurd -- remains convinced that it can impose its sectarian agenda by force. . . . Until all are convinced that they have exhausted the option of force, there will be no settlement.
If Iraq is like the rest of the post-Cold War world, this will take six to 12 years, not six to 12 months. Not only is the United States unlikely to speed up the resolution of the conflict, it may even slow a resolution down, by acting as a buffer or co-combatant -- as did U.N. troops in Bosnia, Syrian forces in Lebanon and the armies of multiple African states in Congo."

source
The Washington Post. War Against Time. January 8, 2007. (columnist Jackson Diehl).

posted: friday, january 12, 2007, 8:27 AM ET
update: friday, january 12, 2007, 10:38 AM ET

tag: iraq

Poetry in motion

"In Saudi Arabia, poems eulogizing Mr. Hussein have been passed around on cellphones and in e-mail messages.
'Prepare the gun that will avenge Saddam,' a poem published in a Saudi newspaper warned. 'The criminal who signed the execution order without valid reason cheated us on our celebration day. How beautiful it will be when the bullet goes through the heart of him who betrayed Arabism.' " [1]

How come my Saddam Hussein poem doesn't get passed around on cellphones and e-mails? (see The Life and Death of Saddam Hussein.) I mean, their poem doesn't even rhyme. And look how violent. It's not even their country and they want to start killing people.

Another poetic utterance. This one from Lebanon.

" 'God damn America and its spies,' a banner across one major Beirut thoroughfare read. 'Our condolences to the nation for the assassination of Saddam, and victory to the Iraqi resistance.' " [1]

OK, so it's not a poem, but it's pretty poetic. It's possibly playing on Saddam's name. ("God damn" "Sad dam.") I did that in my poem, too. ("sad-mad" "sad dam.") Their's is more powerful though. "God damn," "damn you," "fucking damn you." Pretty powerful. I just have "sad-mad," "mad-sad," "mad-sad-glad-bad." Pretty weak.

I think the Beirut utterance was also playing on "God bless America," but said "God damn America" instead.

I had an anti-American line, too. "Attacked Iran and took the blame." It's an allusion to the disastrous 8-year Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s where America supported Iraq militarily. (And Iran, too, by the way.) But it's too oblique. Nobody got it. And those that did just shrugged their shoulders and went "eh."

But I know what to do now. In future Saddam Hussein poems, no rhyming, but a strong and effective use of violence and profanity. And be more poetic.

source
The New York Times. Images of Hanging Make Hussein a Martyr to Many. January 6, 2007.

posted: tuesday, january 9, 2007, 12:03 AM ET
update: thursday, february 1, 2007, 3:43 AM ET

tags: iraq poetry saddam

America should help Hezbollah be part of Lebanese government

"Last month the White House issued an official statement citing 'attempts by Syria, Iran, and their allies within Lebanon to foment instability and violence' and insisting the United States would 'continue its efforts with allied nations and democratic forces in Lebanon to resist these efforts.' In other words, we’re still trying to rile Lebanese sentiment as a wedge against our enemies in the region.
A far more genuine American commitment to Lebanon would focus on helping the parties to come up with a reasonable formula to redress the under-representation of Shiites in the power structure while getting greater government control over Hezbollah’s war-making capacity.
Make no mistake: Hezbollah is no friend to America. As a former United States intelligence officer, I know there are a few accounts yet to be settled with that organization. But Washington will never achieve its objectives in the Middle East — including its obligation to ensure Israel’s long-term security — unless it puts emotions aside and deals realistically with facts on the ground. Like it or not, Hezbollah is one of those facts. A less-than-pliable but strong government in Lebanon would be far preferable to no real government at all, which is what we have now."

Op-ed by Robert Grenier, former director of the CIA's counterintelligence center.

source
The New York Times. If You Love Lebanon, Set It Free. December 17, 2006.

song: There's no ceasefire in Lebanon, baby

posted: tuesday, december 19, 2006, 11:08 AM ET

lebanon manipulation America cia song

Lebanon protest rally continues; Shiites have not been treated well

"The center of Beirut was packed Sunday with hundreds of thousands of pro-Hezbollah and allied demonstrators who, in a jubilant mass of protest and carnival, pressed their call for the government to resign.
. . . Over and over, the crowd, the speakers and the posters offered clear explanations. They did not want a government controlled by the so-called March 14 coalition, an amalgam of Sunni, Christian and Druse parties. They did not want a government aligned with Washington. In short, a very large number of Lebanese citizens said they did not want the present leadership.
. . . Hezbollah and its allies have managed for 10 days to control the center of Beirut with a loud, peaceful, organized protest. In many ways, Hezbollah has adopted a strategy that has been cheered by the White House in the past, in places like Ukraine, and even Lebanon, leaning on large, peaceful crowds to force unpopular governments to resign and pave the way for elections.
But this time Washington and its allies have said the protest amounts to a coup d’état, fueling charges that the United States supports democratic practices only when its allies are winning." [1]

"In some ways, Hossam Yassine represents the changing fortunes of Lebanon's Shiites. Yassine is college-educated, back from a job in the Persian Gulf. And every day this week, he has gone to the festival-like protests, in part for the party, in part because Hezbollah wants him to and in part because he believes.
"Hezbollah came and made something for the Shia, that we are here," the 22-year-old said.
. . . In a way, the protests . . . are the equivalent of a new kind of politics in Lebanon, drawing on the street, roiled by populist demands: a protest over government corruption, a denunciation of the United States and Israel, a celebration of the war this summer, tinted with a sense of betrayal at the hands of other Lebanese, and a call for change, however ill-defined it might be.
. . . "From the beginning we weren't treated well. Not just now. From the previous government and the government before that," Yassine said. "The people aren't going here because what Sayyid Hasan said. Sure, they'll do what he says. They love him. But they're going here because they're unhappy. I'll go not one night, two nights or three nights. I'll go for a year or two years."
. . . "They can't let any fight get big," Yassine said. "If a small fight gets big, Lebanon is gone." [2]

sources
[1] The New York Times. As Crowd Demands Change, Lebanese Premier Is Puzzled. December 11, 2006.
[2] The Washington Post. Lebanon's Shiites Grapple With New Feeling of Power. December 10, 2006.

posted: thursday, december 14, 2006, 5:49 PM ET
update: thursday, december 14, 2006, 5:52 PM ET

Hezbollah protest rally

"Hezbollah and its allies escalated Lebanon's month-long political crisis into a popular confrontation Friday, sending hundreds of thousands of supporters into the streets, parking lots and sidewalks of downtown Beirut, vowing to topple the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and reorient the country.
. . . If the protests fail to force the government's resignation, flatly ruled out by Siniora in a speech Thursday, Hezbollah's supporters have talked about resignations from parliament, work stoppages or civil disobedience to shut down ministries.
The group's opponents, sensing that Friday's mass demonstration was the biggest card it had to play, promised to wait.
. . . The slogans played on themes that Hezbollah and its allies have pushed relentlessly since the crisis began. Corruption was a key complaint.
Often the language was directed against the United States' sway in Lebanon. Nasrallah has called the government more loyal to U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman than Siniora himself." [1]

"People started to jam into the city well before the demonstration’s scheduled 3 p.m. start. The army closed off Martyrs Square, a symbolic site, blocking it with swirls of razor wire and guarding it with armored personnel carriers and heavily armed troops." [2]

"Hezbollah moved quickly after the war with Israel to capitalize on its enhanced political standing at home and abroad, out of a conviction that the governing coalition had effectively colluded with Israel in the hope its bombing campaign would destroy Hezbollah’s militia. Political leaders initially held talks aimed at resolving the standoff. But the talks collapsed when Hezbollah refused to give up its demand that its alliance be given more seats in the cabinet — one-third-plus-one members, ensuring it veto power — a demand the governing coalition also refused.
'Lebanon,' Sheik Nasrallah said, 'with its structure, diversity, nature and confidentiality, cannot be ruled by one single party and cannot be ruled by a specific coalition to solve its problems, especially in light of the internal difficult conditions, which are regionally more difficult and internationally very dangerous.' " [3]

sources
[1] The Washington Post. Crisis Intensifies in Lebanon As Hezbollah Takes to Streets. December 2, 2006.
[2] The New York Times. In Beirut, High Spirits and Demand for Change. December 2, 2006.
[3] The New York Times. Hezbollah Calls for Rally to Grip Beirut. December 1, 2006.

posted: monday, december 4, 2006, 8:15 AM ET

Gemayel conspiracy theories

Gemayel's allies

"In the Shiite southern suburbs, Hezbollah's stronghold, shops stayed open Thursday despite a three-day period of mourning announced after Gemayel's death. As the funeral began, many watched scenes a few miles away unfold on television. Suspicion ran deep that Gemayel's allies, not Syria, were behind the killing, given the way his death has bolstered Hezbollah's opponents and put the organization on the defensive, forcing it to delay its own protests many had expected to begin this week." [1]

"The simmering struggle flared this month when Hezbollah and its Christian ally, Michel Aoun, demanded greater representation in the cabinet. Four rounds of talks failed, and two Hezbollah ministers, three other Shiites and an allied politician resigned on Nov. 11, depriving the cabinet of its Shiite representation and the symbolic sectarian consensus on which Lebanese politics depends.
Two days later, the depleted cabinet endorsed a U.N. proposal for an international tribunal to try suspects in Hariri's death, a step Syria has adamantly resisted. This weekend, in another escalation, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah insisted that the government resign or hold early parliamentary elections. Otherwise, he said, his followers would conduct days, even weeks of protests to bring the government down." [2]

syria

"U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has diligently and courageously pursued another course in dealing with Syria's systematic use of violence to regain control over Lebanon and the fortunes in smuggling drugs and arms that Syrian politicians and generals generate from their neighbor.
Citing the conditions created by the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, Lebanon's former prime minister, in February 2005 as a threat to international peace, Annan creatively pushed for an international criminal investigation and an international tribunal to try the case. Syrian officials are prime suspects in that crime and are widely believed to be behind the assassinations of at least four other advocates of Lebanese independence that followed Hariri's murder.
The killing of Gemayel, a member of the anti-Syrian coalition headed by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, bears the hallmarks of a Syrian "initiative" to block the U.N. effort. And the murder came as Syria was reestablishing diplomatic relations with Iraq after 24 years of estrangement. This translation of Syrian actions quickly made its way through the Middle East: "You want help in Iraq? It will cost you Lebanon. For starters." That is realpolitik and real communication, Assad-style." [3]

sources
[1] The Washington Post. At Lebanese Funeral, a Show of Force Against Syria: Gemayel's Assassination Highlights Escalating Conflict Over Country's Direction. November 24, 2006.
[2] The Washington Post. Fears of Civil Strife Rise in Lebanon: Christian Cabinet Member Pierre Gemayel, Killed by Gunmen, Was Critic of Syria. November 22, 2006.
[3] The Washington Post. Realism, and Values, in Lebanon. November 26, 2006.

posted: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:53 PM ET
update: wednesday, november 29, 2006, 3:49 PM ET

Lebanon and civil war

"Many at the rally [for assassinated Lebanese Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel] dismissed the notion of civil war. As far apart as they are, many said, they have learned their lesson.
'That's just forbidden,' said Haifa, one of those at the square. 'Me, my family, my relatives, we wouldn't take part unless the door was opened right in front of us. We're not going to fall into this trap.'
At the other end of the square, George Khouri, a 29-year-old former Christian militiaman, wasn't so sure.
Why not? he shrugged. 'It would end all these small wars. One would win and one would lose, and then we would divide the country.'
He grinned. 'It's already partitioned anyway.' " [1]

Why not split the country without a civil war, if that's what they want? If one side wants to split and the other doesn't, why would the side that doesn't want to keep the side that does in a forced relationship? It's like slavery or a bad marriage.

source
The Washington Post. At Lebanese Funeral, a Show of Force Against Syria: Gemayel's Assassination Highlights Escalating Conflict Over Country's Direction. November 24, 2006.

posted: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:42 PM ET
update: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:58 PM ET

Gemayel assassination partly due to U.S. policy, some say

"The bullets that raked [Lebanon cabinet minister Pierre] Gemayel's car also fired on U.S. policy, analysts say.
'The bullets were meant for an outspoken critic of Syria. The Cedar Revolution is seen as an extension of American power, so the assassination of Gemayel was by extension a way of striking the U.S. as well,' said Augustus Richard Norton, a former U.N. peacekeeper in Lebanon and now a professor at Boston University.
Added Lebanese columnist Rami Khouri, currently on a speaking tour in the United States: 'This is the new Cold War.'
U.N. Ambassador John R. Bolton said Gemayel's assassination brought new attention to the danger that Syria and Iran are attempting, through Lebanese allies such as Hezbollah, to conduct a coup d'etat against the pro-Western government led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora."

source
The Washington Post. Assassination Increases Tensions With Syria, Iran. November 22, 2006.

posted: friday, november 24, 2006, 9:25 PM ET

Why wasn't Condoleezza Rice at the recent White House meeting on Iraq?

(caption) "President George W. Bush speaks during a video teleconference with Vice President Dick Cheney, on screen, and military commanders in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2006. Pictured from left are National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, Deputy National Security Advisor J.D. Crouch, Senior Advisor to the Secretary of State on Iraq David Satterfield, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Army General John Abizaid and Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Marine General Peter Pace." [1]

"President Bush met with his top advisers and military commanders on Iraq yesterday in a White House session that, senior officials said, weighed options for forging a way forward amid the surging violence but did not contemplate any major shifts in strategy.
The participants in the 90-minute video conference -- who included Vice President Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad and Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the military commander in Iraq -- talked about tactical changes that could overcome the severe challenges posed by the war, officials said.
"The participants focused on the nature of the enemy, the challenges in Iraq, how to better pursue our strategy, and the stakes of succeeding for the region and the security of the American people," said White House spokeswoman Nicole Guillemard.
The meeting, which the White House called the third in a series Bush has held with this group to consult on the war, did not consider any significant policy changes." [2]

Why wasn't Condoleezza Rice included in this meeting?

It seems that in a conflict where even the military says that there is no sole military solution, the Secretary of State should be at every important meeting to discuss and advocate possible diplomatic and governmental solutions.

In fact, the Department of State, not the Department of Defense, should have been the lead agency in Iraq soon after the fall of Saddam Hussein. That it was not may have been due, at least in part, to a vision of Iraq as an ally or instrument in the war on terror rather than as a vibrant, self-fulfilling nation in its own right.

And recall also that Rice was able to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon after only 34 days, despite a late start.

sources

[1] The White House. (no title). October 21, 2006. (photo and caption).

[2] The Washington Post. At White House Meeting, No Big Changes on Iraq. October 22, 2006.

related postings

[1] Rice and Baker will probably work together on Iraq. November 13, 2006.

posted: monday, october 23, 2006, 5:59 AM ET

update: saturday, december 2, 2006, 5:25 AM ET