Govt, media, training, not more troops, needed in Baqubah

"Violence is on the rise in Baqubah, U.S. military officials acknowledge, even as they maintain that it is waning in other parts of oil-rich Diyala province [about 35 miles northeast of Baghdad]. . . . Although the U.S. military has the might to eliminate the insurgents, officials say, keeping Baqubah secure for the long term requires building up the police and army and boosting confidence in the government.
The task is difficult, they add, in a city where former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, Shiites looking to cement their political control, Iranians seeking an Iraqi foothold, Kurds attempting to expand southward and insurgent groups such as al-Qaeda in Iraq struggle for dominance. The provincial council has not met in six months, and there are few local media the government can use to communicate with the people.
. . . Because of the tribal complexities here 'you can't find just one leader in Diyala,' [Diyala brigade commander Col. David W.] Sutherland said. 'If you're asking what I need, I need the provincial council to come to work and show backbone, and I need local media. . . . I don't need more forces.' "

source
Murphy, Bill Jr. (The Washington Post). In Baqubah, 'Focus Is Aimed, Controlled Shooting'. February 19, 2007.

posted: tuesday, february 20, 2007, 5:46 PM ET

tags: iraq government

Sistani may support proposed moderate coalition / federalism law may have contributed to gridlock, but did not cause boycott

"Iraq’s most venerated Shiite cleric has tentatively approved an American-backed coalition of Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties that aims to isolate extremists, particularly the powerful Shiite militia leader Moktada al-Sadr, Iraqi and Western officials say.
. . . But Ayatollah [Ali al-]Sistani has grown increasingly distressed as the Shiite-led government has proved incapable of taming the violence and improving public services, Shiite officials say.
. . . Since winning 130 of the 275 seats in Parliament, the Shiite bloc has never coalesced as Ayatollah Sistani intended it to, and factional rivalries have deepened, particularly over the past several months. A law enabling provinces to form autonomous regions, approved in October, was supported by Mr. Hakim but bitterly opposed by Mr. Sadr and members of the Fadhila Party, a Shiite group close to Mr. Sadr.
The Shiite infighting has paralyzed the government. Since Mr. Sadr’s loyalists began boycotting the government last month, the Parliament has been unable to form a quorum, preventing the passage of laws.
The new coalition is aimed at circumventing that kind of conflict, its leaders say, which is probably why Ayatollah Sistani is willing to lend his support." [1]

Though Hakim's federalism law apparently did increase tension between him and Sadr and may have contributed to government gridlock, the November boycott by Sadr loyalists was due to Prime Minister Maliki's decision to meet with President Bush in Amman, Jordan, not because of the federalism law as may be implied by the way the above quotation was written.

"Iraqi lawmakers and cabinet ministers allied with Shiite cleric and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr, a bloc that was pivotal in bringing Maliki to power in May, launched a boycott Wednesday [November 29] of their governmental duties to protest Maliki's decision to meet with Bush [in Amman.]" [2]

"Sadr [in calling the boycott] is bringing pressure to bear on Maliki to not give in to demands by the United States on security matters. They include the U.S. drive to dismantle Iraq's Shiite militias, of which Sadr runs the largest and most violent, the Mahdi Army." [3]

I also believe that Bush said in a speech or press conference within several months prior to the Amman summit that he did not support federalism as a solution to the current crises in Iraq, though I can't locate the quote. And I believe that Maliki also did not support federalism as a solution, though again, I can't locate the quote.

It may also have been better if the October federalism law vote had been put off until the government could have passed some laws or until it became apparent that they weren't going to pass any laws because of the already existing tensions. And with the 18-month lag time between the law's passage and its implementation (which only allows each province to vote if they want federalism for themselves, it does not impose federalism on everyone), federalism has not had the opportunity to show whether it can help lessen the violence or not.

It was surprising that the vote came up when it did, nonetheless. And I still support federalism as a possible solution, by the way. Though the Iraqi people would have to be persuaded to support federalism beforehand.

sources
[1] The New York Times. Top Shiite Cleric Is Said to Favor a Coalition for Iraq. December 20, 2006.
[2] The Washington Post. Bush, Maliki Meet After First Talks Are Canceled. November 30, 2006.
[3] The Washington Post. Sadr Casts a Shadow Over Bush-Maliki Meeting. November 30, 2006.

song
Peace in the middle east

posted: thursday, december 21, 2006, 3:45 PM ET
update: saturday, december 23, 2006, 1:12 PM ET

iraq federalism moktada al-sadr moderate coalition ali al-sistani

America should help Hezbollah be part of Lebanese government

"Last month the White House issued an official statement citing 'attempts by Syria, Iran, and their allies within Lebanon to foment instability and violence' and insisting the United States would 'continue its efforts with allied nations and democratic forces in Lebanon to resist these efforts.' In other words, we’re still trying to rile Lebanese sentiment as a wedge against our enemies in the region.
A far more genuine American commitment to Lebanon would focus on helping the parties to come up with a reasonable formula to redress the under-representation of Shiites in the power structure while getting greater government control over Hezbollah’s war-making capacity.
Make no mistake: Hezbollah is no friend to America. As a former United States intelligence officer, I know there are a few accounts yet to be settled with that organization. But Washington will never achieve its objectives in the Middle East — including its obligation to ensure Israel’s long-term security — unless it puts emotions aside and deals realistically with facts on the ground. Like it or not, Hezbollah is one of those facts. A less-than-pliable but strong government in Lebanon would be far preferable to no real government at all, which is what we have now."

Op-ed by Robert Grenier, former director of the CIA's counterintelligence center.

source
The New York Times. If You Love Lebanon, Set It Free. December 17, 2006.

song: There's no ceasefire in Lebanon, baby

posted: tuesday, december 19, 2006, 11:08 AM ET

lebanon manipulation America cia song

Iraq needs strong government and leader, say some Iraqis

"These assurances [by President Bush and Prime Minister al-Maliki at Jordan summit] amounted to nothing more than hollow promises in the opinion of Ahmed Khalaf, a 34-year-old Shiite who works as a taxi driver in Baghdad.
. . . 'Nothing will happen, and we will get no results and no solutions,' he went on. 'We need a strong state that can make decisions, that can beat the bad guys, can beat the militias. This meeting is just for the media, and it’s not useful!' "

" 'The solutions are so obvious that Maliki does not need Bush to tell him about them,' said Huda, a 40-year-old graphic designer in Baghdad, who would give only her first name out of concern for her safety.
'Mr. Maliki had many chances before to show his ability, but he failed,' she said. 'We need a strong man and he is not like this at all.' "

source
The New York Times. Having Pinned Little Hope on Talks, Many Iraqis Appear to Be Beyond Disappointment. December 1, 2006.

posted: thursday, december 14, 2006, 7:23 AM ET
update: thursday, december 14, 2006, 7:29 AM ET

Iraq needs effective government, especially before too many professionals exit; current government may not be the answer

For whatever reason - sectarian differences, over 20 years of dictatorship, external meddling - Iraq's current government does not seem able to effectively govern Iraq at the national level.

Any country is going to have crises that come along, some more serious than others. The sectarian violence crisis was the first that the current Iraqi government had to face and it is failing to deal with it effectively. It has said that it needs more time. This is a valid concern, especially since the inherited insurgent-terrorist crisis also has to be resolved. But in the meantime, thousands of Iraqi civilians are dying and thousands more are fleeing the country, many of whom are the skilled professionals that Iraq will need in order to become successful. [1, 2] So the more time that passes, the less it seems Iraq will likely succeed since it will have less and less of the skilled professionals needed for success. And if the Iraqi government in its current form does not appear to be the solution, why give it more of this valuable time when other possible solutions are waiting to be tried?

news quotes

"Much of UNHCR's work in the first three years since the fall of the previous Iraqi regime was based on the assumption that the domestic situation would stabilise and hundreds of thousands of previously displaced Iraqis would soon be able to go home. In 2006, however, spiralling violence led to increasing displacement, necessitating a reassessment of UNHCR's work and its priorities throughout the region – from assisting returns and aiding some 50,000 non-Iraqi refugees in Iraq, to providing more help to the thousands who are fleeing every month.
Between 2003 and 2005, more than 253,000 Iraqis did return home, including from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and other countries. Now, however, the returns have stopped and many more people are fleeing, including large numbers of skilled professionals crucial to Iraq's recovery." [1]

"Targeting of professionals, intellectuals, political, tribal and religious leaders, Government officials and members of the security forces continued unabated. The effect of violence is also affecting education, as many schools and universities have failed to open or have had their schedules disrupted and educators, professors and students were forced to leave the country. Increasing activity of extremist groups inside universities negatively affect access to education.
. . . Targeted assassination of professionals, such as journalists, teachers, professors, lawyers, doctors and other intellectuals, political, tribal and religious leaders, Government officials and members of the Iraqi security forces, police and military recruits continued to be recorded in an alarming number in the past two months." [2]

sources
[1] United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHRC). Iraq: Growing needs amid continuing displacement. November 2006.
[2] United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). Human Rights Report. 1 September - 31 October 2006.

posted: sunday, november 26, 2006, 12:37 PM ET
update: monday, december 25, 2006, 9:43 AM ET