Sadr returns as Hakim & Talabani medical problems / Sunni tribal leader visits Sadr City

"Moqtada al-Sadr, the influential Shiite cleric and militia leader who went into hiding before the launch of a U.S.-Iraqi security offensive in February, is in the southern city of Kufa, senior U.S. military commanders said Thursday.
Sadr, who has long opposed the U.S. occupation and is ratcheting up pressure for a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, has returned from neighboring Iran, perhaps as recently as this week, they said.
. . . Sadr's movement is wooing Sunni leaders and purging extremists in his Mahdi Army militia in an attempt to strengthen his image as a nationalist who can lead all Iraqis at a time when antiwar sentiments are growing in the United States and Iraq's political landscape is increasingly fractured.
Sadr's apparent reemergence comes days after his main Shiite rival, cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, went to Iran for treatment of lung cancer. Hakim is also trying to strike a nationalist stance, recently changing the name of his party from the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq to the Supreme Islamic Council in Iraq." [1]

"The Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani, flew to the United States on Sunday for a multiweek visit that his office said was for rest and for help in reducing his weight. His office denied local news media reports that Mr. Talabani was ill and said he was in general good health apart from his weight, The Associated Press reported. His extended departure comes at a time when the United States is pressing Iraqi politicians to make progress on a variety of measures." [2]

"Radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr resurfaced Friday after nearly four months in hiding and demanded U.S. troops leave Iraq, a development likely to complicate U.S. efforts to crack down on violence and broker political compromise in the country.
. . . 'No, no for Satan. No, no for America. No, no for the occupation. No, no for Israel,' the glowering, black-turbaned cleric chanted in a call and response with the crowd.
. . . 'To our Iraqi Sunni brothers, I say that the occupation sows dissension among us and that strength is unity and division is weakness,' he said. 'I'm ready to cooperate with them in all fields.'
. . . Al-Sadr's associates say his strategy rests in part on his belief that Washington will soon start reducing troop strength, leaving behind a hole in Iraq's security and political power structure that he can fill. He also believes al-Maliki's government may soon collapse under its failure to improve security, services and the economy, they say." [3]

"In a hopeful sign on Tuesday, a Sunni tribal leader made a conciliatory public visit to Sadr City, the Shiite enclave in western Baghdad. Sheikh Hamid al-Hayis, leader of an alliance of Sunni tribes that recently began providing men to fight Al Qaeda beside the marines in Anbar Province, met with backers of the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.
Salih al-Ugaily, a Sadr supporter in Parliament, said in an interview that the two sides had agreed on the need for reconciliation and to expedite holding provincial elections, a major demand of Sunni Iraqis, many of whom have said they feel disenfranchised after boycotting previous elections." [4]

sources
[1] Ricks, Thomas E. & Raghavan, Sudarsan. (The Washington Post). Sadr Back in Iraq, U.S. Generals Say. May 25, 2007.
[2] Cloud, David S. (The New York Times). 7 U.S. Soldiers Die in Iraq, 6 in Sweep of Baghdad. May 21, 2007.
[3] The Associated Press. Radical Anti-American Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr Returns to Iraq. May 25, 2007.
[4] Cloud, David S. (The New York Times). Baghdad Truck Bomb Kills 25 and Wounds 100 Others. May 23, 2007.

posted: saturday, may 26, 2007, 10:55 AM ET
update: saturday, june 16, 2007, 3:55 PM ET

tags: iraq sadr

Sadr fight qaeda so US exit; outreach to Sunnis

"Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr . . . is reaching out to a broad array of Sunni leaders, from politicians to insurgents, and purging extremist members of his Mahdi Army militia who target Sunnis. Sadr's political followers are distancing themselves from the fragile Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, which is widely criticized as corrupt, inefficient and biased in favor of Iraq's majority Shiites. And moderates are taking up key roles in Sadr's movement, professing to be less anti-American and more nationalist as they seek to improve Sadr's image and position him in the middle of Iraq's ideological spectrum.
'We want to aim the guns against the occupation and al-Qaeda, not between Iraqis,' Ahmed Shaibani, 37, a cleric who leads Sadr's newly formed reconciliation committee, said.
. . . 'We are not anti-American. We think the Americans have an important role in rebuilding Iraq, but as companies, not as an army,' [Salah al-Obaidi, a senior aide to Sadr said]. . . 'We can open a new channel with the Democrats, even some of the Republicans.'
. . . If the sectarian war can be stopped, if the Mahdi Army and Sunni insurgent groups can join hands and break al-Qaeda in Iraq, there will be less reason for U.S. forces to stay, said Shaibani, wearing a black dishdasha, a traditional loose-fitting tunic, and clutching a Nokia cellphone during an interview in late April. 'The American argument is we can't have a timetable because of al-Qaeda,' he said. 'So we're going to weaken al-Qaeda for you.'

source
Raghavan, Sudarsan. (The Washington Post). Iraq's Sadr Overhauls His Tactics. May 19, 2007.

posted: tuesday, may 22, 2007, 2:40 PM ET

tags: iraq moktada al-sadr al qaeda

Sunni says US is problem; against faction meet / Anti-Shiite conspiracy, Shiite hotelier says

" 'The problem in Iraq is the American Army,' . . . [Muhammad al-Daini, a Sunni Arab member of the Iraqi Parliament] told a group of attentive American legislators. . . 'What brought terrorism, what brought Al Qaeda and what brought Iranian influence is the Americans.'
Mr. Daini, soft-spoken and generally unsmiling, has been ushered from meeting to meeting by a public relations firm paid by an American businessman who calls the Iraqi politician 'a true humanitarian.' The businessman, Dal LaMagna, says he is devoting the fortune he made selling his high-end grooming tools business, Tweezerman, to seeking an end to the violence in Iraq.
. . . The American lawmakers were polite and inquisitive but some appeared nonplussed by hints of the polarization of Iraqi views. When Representative Bill Delahunt, Democrat of Massachusetts, suggested that it might be valuable to get all Iraqi factions to meet for talks in the United States, Mr. Daini demurred.
. . . Mr. Daini, 35, is a member of the National Dialogue Front, a Sunni Arab political group led by Saleh al-Mutlak, a former Baath Party official who insists that the Baath Party, the party of Saddam Hussein, was the best party ever to govern Iraq." [1]

"Ayad owns a hotel in the southern city of Karbala, home to two of Shiism’s most important shrines. His wife and two daughters wear veils. He believes that the violence in Iraq is a Sunni and American conspiracy against Shiites, and he argues that Iran is the best ally of Iraqi Shiites.
. . . The Sunnis, he said, have 'oppressed us since the days of the Prophet, and now it is our chance to hit back and rule.'
According to Ayad, a Shiite takeover in Iraq would set a good model for the Shiites of Lebanon, where they number about a third of the population, and Bahrain, where they are a majority.
'Perhaps the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia will act too, rid themselves of the Sunni oppression against them, and rule or at least separate themselves from Riyadh and create their own state.'
It is exactly this possibility that has made the Sunni Arab regimes fear a Shiite regional revolt and moved some to support the Sunni insurgency in Iraq or at least to voice their resentment of the Iraqi Shiite government, which is seen as being biased against Iraqi Sunnis.
. . . 'When we fought the Persians during the 1980s, we were wrong. We’re Shiites before being Iraqis. Sunnis invented national identity to rule us.' "

Op-ed by Hussain Abdul-Hussain, "a former reporter for The Daily Star of Lebanon." [2]

Peace thru oppression?

source
[1] Shane, Scott & Wong, Edward. (The New York Times). Antiwar Iraqi in Washington Has a More Sectarian Agenda at Home. May 14, 2007.
[2] Abdul-Hussain, Hussain. (The New York Times). In Iraq, the play was the thing. May 7, 2007.

posted: wednesday, may 16, 2007, 6:14 AM ET
update: wednesday, may 18, 2007, 6:29 PM ET

tags: iraq muhammad al-daini dal lamagna tweezerman saleh al-mutlak

Kurds want their oil fields, Sunnis want oil unity

"Politicians from the . . . Kurdish region say measures in the law that would take undeveloped oil fields away from regional governments and have a new national oil company oversee them are unconstitutional.
'Iraq, frankly, does not have the money to invest in oil fields,' said Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdish region's minister of natural resources. He added that the Kurds are disputing four annexes to the draft law that would dilute their ability to exploit oil in their territory. If the draft isn't 'watered down,' Kurdish regional authorities will not support it, he said.
The Kurds also don't trust the central government to distribute oil revenue, saying it has been behind in payments in other instances. Some have suggested that a fund be set up outside Iraq to dole out that money. 'We are asking for our fair share and guarantees that we will receive it,' Hawrami said.
Sunni Arabs and some secular Shiite politicians, however, stand firm that the central government must control oil production and revenue distribution. 'If we want to keep the unity of Iraq, the best way is to keep the oil under the authority of the central government,' said Adnan Pachachi, a secular Sunni with the Iraqi National List party of former prime minister Ayad Allawi. *
While some Kurds favor allowing agreements that would share production with foreign oil companies, many Sunnis and Shiites are against them on nationalistic grounds. They prefer service contracts."

source
Raghavan, Sudarsan. (The Washington Post). Baghdad's Fissures and Mistrust Keep Political Goals Out of Reach. April 26, 2007.

footnote
* The main reason for some sort of centralized distribution of oil revenue, whether from the Iraqi national government or somewhere else, should be the fair distribution of these revenues. It should not be used to keep regions or provinces from achieving a more autonomous status, if that's what they want.

posted: saturday, april 28, 2007, 6:07 PM ET
update: sunday, april 29, 2007, 4:42 AM ET

related posting
Should Iraq's oil fields be nationalized? April 11, 2007.

tags: iraq oil

Sunni "gated community" controversy

"The U.S. military is walling off at least 10 of Baghdad's most violent neighborhoods and using biometric technology to track some of their residents, creating what officers call 'gated communities' in an attempt to carve out oases of safety in this war-ravaged city.
The plan drew widespread condemnation in Iraq this past week. On Sunday night, Prime Minister Nouri-al Maliki told news services that he would work to halt construction of a wall around the Sunni district of Adhamiyah, which residents said would aggravate sectarian tensions by segregating them from Shiite neighbors.
. . . The tactic is part of the two-month-old U.S. and Iraqi counterinsurgency plan to calm sectarian strife and is loosely modeled after efforts in cities such as Tall Afar and Fallujah, where the military says it has curbed violence by strictly controlling access. The gated communities concept has produced mixed results in previous wars -- including failure in Vietnam, where peasants were forcibly moved to fortified hamlets, only to become sympathizers of the insurgency.
. . . [S]outhern Ghazaliyah is a base for al-Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni insurgent groups." [1]

"The barrier quickly drew criticism from Adhamiyah residents, who . . . likened it to the barriers Israel has constructed around the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, which are much-maligned in the Arab world. Other critics joined the outcry, among them human rights activists and representatives of anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, one of whom told reporters in Najaf that the walls amounted to a 'siege of the city.'
. . . Dawood al-Azami, deputy director of the Adhamiyah local council, said 90 percent of respondents to a survey distributed in the neighborhood on Sunday were strongly opposed to the wall, the Associated Press reported.
U.S. military officials say many residents of the city's newly walled-off neighborhoods are pleased with the barriers. Mohammad al-Kabi [a building contractor] is one.
. . . Checkpoints and road closures already have severed his ties to friends and business partners on the other side of wall, he said. There used to be daily clashes on his street. Now, with the wall going up, he said he feels more protected.
'There are no other options,' said Kabi, a Shiite Muslim. 'It has reduced the violence. The snipers are not shooting at us anymore.' [2]

"The strong reaction underscores the sense of powerlessness Iraqis feel in the face of the American military, whose presence is all the more pervasive as an increasing number of troops move on to the city’s streets.
And it has proved to be an unlikely boon for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, making the Shiite politician — at least for now — into a champion for Sunnis because he publicly opposed the wall’s construction." [3]

source
[1] Brulliard, Karin. (The Washington Post). 'Gated Communities' For the War-Ravaged. April 23, 2007.
[2] Bruillard, Karin. (The Washington Post). Iraq Blast Kills 9 GIs, Injures 20 At Outpost. April 24, 2007.
[3] Rubin, Alissa J. (The New York Times). Frustration Over Wall Unites Sunni and Shiite. April 24, 2007.

posted: wednesday, april 25, 2007, 3:48 PM ET

tags: iraq gated communities

Sunni nations may lessen Iraq's Sunnis' anger

"[Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri] Maliki faces skepticism from Sunni Arab countries over his government’s close ties with the Shiite government in Iran, as well as doubts about whether his government can bring stability to the country, said a senior American official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was speaking before the discussions took place.
American officials are hopeful that by persuading other Arab governments to work closely with Mr. Maliki, they can reduce the hostility for the Iraqi government from Sunnis inside Iraq.
'What we need is for the regional players, like Jordan, and established players in the region, like Egypt, these broadly-based Sunni countries, to show that it recognizes the Maliki government,' the senior official said.
. . . At a regional conference in Baghdad last month, Mr. Maliki appealed for help from his neighbors to stem the violence in Iraq.
But only a few days later . . . the Arab League secretary general, Amr Moussa, said that the Iraqi government was responsible for defusing the sectarian violence, and that Iraq should revise its Constitution and rescind laws that give preferential treatment to Shiites and Kurds."

source
Cloud, David S. (The New York Times). Gates Will Try to Build Support for Iraqi Premier on Mideast Trip. April 17, 2007.

posted: saturday, april 21, 2007, 5:25 AM ET

tags: iraq maliki

Qaeda's Baghdadi reaches out to insurgents

"The head of an al Qaeda-linked group in Iraq said the country had become a 'university of terrorism,' producing highly qualified warriors, since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
In an audio recording posted on the Internet on Tuesday, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the self-styled Islamic State in Iraq, said his fighters were successfully confronting U.S. forces in Iraq and have begun producing a guided missile called al-Quds 1 or Jerusalem 1.
. . . Addressing insurgent groups such as the Islamic Army in Iraq and the Ansar al-Sunna, Baghdadi said he strongly opposed any fighting between insurgent groups and vowed to take all necessary measures to prevent bloodshed.
'By God, you will not hear or see but good things (from us),' he said.
Ibrahim al-Shemmari, the spokesman of the Islamic Army in Iraq, welcomed Baghdadi's remarks.
'If they want to ... preserve the blood of Sunnis, we would be the happiest people to hear this talk,' he told Al Jazeera television in a telephone interview. 'We want to point out weapons at our enemies' chests and not at each other.' "

source
Sedarat, Firouz. (Reuters). Qaeda group says Iraq a "university of terror." April 17, 2007.

posted: saturday, april 21, 2007, 4:04 AM ET
update: saturday, april 21, 2007, 4:30 AM ET

tags: iraq abu omar al-baghdadi

Insurgent groups splitting from Qaeda

"An Iraqi militant group has highlighted the split in the ranks of the Iraqi insurgency by having its spokesman give a television interview in which he accuses al-Qaida and its umbrella organization of killing its members and pursuing the wrong policies.
"The gap has widened and the injustices committed by some brothers in al-Qaida have increased," Ibrahim al-Shimmari told Al-Jazeera television in an interview broadcast Wednesday and repeated Thursday.
. . . Al-Shimmari is the spokesman for the Islamic Army in Iraq, a Sunni militant group that first aired its grievances against al-Qaida and umbrella Islamic State of Iraq on its Web site last week.
. . . He accused al-Qaida of killing 30 members of the Islamic Army, and said the Islamic State of Iraq's claim to constitute a state was both inaccurate and incorrect policy.
. . . He was more critical of Iranian influence in Iraq than American, apparently out of opposition to the growing power of Iraq's Shiite majority, a trend that Shiite-dominant Iran supports." [1]

"Key Sunni militant groups are severing their association with al-Qaeda in Iraq.
. . . The Sunni insurgency in Iraq has long been fractious, in part because secular nationalists [and others] . . . have rejected al-Qaeda's tactics, particularly beheadings.
'They have realized that those people are not working for Iraq's interests,' said Alaa Makki, a Sunni member of parliament with close ties to the insurgents.
. . . Insurgent leaders . . . offered different explanations for their split. Many said their link to the al-Qaeda groups was tainting their image as a nationalist resistance force. Others said they no longer wanted to be tools of the foreign fighters who lead al-Qaeda. Their war, they insist, is against only the U.S. forces, to pressure them to depart Iraq.
. . . About three months ago, al-Qaeda fighters began targeting insurgent leaders.
. . . The Sunni groups are also divided over entering the political process, said Makki.
. . . 'If they maintain their independence from each other and each one has its different strategy, there will be chaos on the ground and chaos at the [negotiating] table,' said Tariq al-Hashimi, the Sunni vice president and leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party." [2]

sources
[1] Keath, Lee. (The Associated Press). Group Notes Split Among Iraq Insurgents. April 12, 2007.
[2] Raghavan, Sudarsan. (The Washington Post). Sunni Factions Split With Al-Qaeda Group. April 14, 2007.

posted: sunday, april 15, 2007, 3:28 PM ET

tags: iraq al qaeda islamic army in iraq

Should Iraq's oil fields be nationalized?

Maybe if Iraq's oil fields were nationalized, the Sunnis would feel more secure about getting their fair share of oil revenue and wouldn't object to the federalist-autonomous-region preferences of a majority of the Shiites and Kurds. *

Nationalizing the fields might also lessen some of the concerns of Turkey over the possibility of Kirkuk being annexed to Kurdistan.

Iraq's constitution already says that the country's oil belongs to all Iraqis. ** Nationalizing the fields in which that oil lays would just be another step in that same general direction.


footnotes
* In a March 19, 2007 poll by ABC News and others, 59% of Shiites and 79% of Kurds favored either regional states with a federal government or independent states. Only 3% of Sunnis favored either of these two options, favoring a strongly centralized national government instead. (question 14)
** "Oil and gas are the ownership of all the people of Iraq in all the regions and governorates." (Iraqi Constitution, Article 110)
*** I'm having second thoughts about this idea. Nationalization could lead to manipulation or coercion by those controlling Iraq's oil or revenue distribution. (see More thoughts on draft oil law).

posted: wednesday, april 11, 2007, 11:55 PM ET
update: tuesday, may 18, 2007, 6:38 PM ET

tags: iraq oil nationalize

Waiting to see surge effect; need reconciliation

"While Washington appears headed toward a political endgame on Iraq . . . the war on the ground is at an ebb tide. All sides -- including U.S. military strategists and Iraqi sectarian leaders and insurgents, as well as regional players such as Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- are waiting to see whether the new U.S. approach to make the Iraqi capital safer will work.
. . . An official in Iraq warned that executing the new approach will take time. . . . '[T]here is no way we can defeat this insurgency by summer. I believe we can begin to turn the tide by then, and have an idea if we are doing it. To defeat it completely is a five-to-10-year project, minimum.'
. . . In Baghdad . . . [s]ectarian killings are down about 50 percent since the new strategy began, according to U.S military spokesmen. Car bombings are up, but so are tips from Iraqis. It is impossible to know how much of the decrease in violence is attributable to the biggest Shiite militia -- radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army -- deciding to lie low.
. . . The U.S. government keeps pushing for reconciliation, but there are few signs of movement toward that goal. 'Nothing is going to work until the parties are ready to compromise, and I don't see any indicators yet that they are,' said A. Heather Coyne, who has worked in Iraq both as a military reservist and as a civilian. 'Until then, any effect of the surge will be temporary.' " [1]

"The Sunni Arabs . . . want Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, a conservative Shiite, to make good on his promise to replace ineffective or corrupt ministers. Mr. Maliki promised the shake-up months ago, but the proposal now appears moribund.
The Sunni Arabs also want the Constitution amended to bring power back to Baghdad and reduce the chance that areas in the oil-rich, Shiite-dominated south will follow the model of Kurdistan and create an autonomous state.
. . . The Sunni Arabs continue to push for a rollback of purges of Sunni Arabs from government.
. . . The ruling Shiites must deal with Sunnis outside the government, in the factionalized insurgency, who can offer few guarantees on any promises to stop bombings against Shiites.
'We talk to people who say they represent the insurgents and they all say the same thing: ‘We oppose the occupation, but we don’t believe in killing civilians, in killing women and children,’ ' a senior adviser to Mr. Maliki said. 'But our people are dying in bombs every day. Who is killing them?' " [2]

sources
[1] Ricks, Thomas E. (The Washington Post). Politics Collide With Iraq Realities. April 8, 2007.
[2] Rubin, Alissa J. & Wong, Edward. (The New York Times). Patterns of War Shift in Iraq Amid U.S. Buildup. April 9, 2007.

posted: monday, april 9, 2007, 3:33 PM ET
update: tuesday, april 10, 2007, 10:05 PM ET

tags: iraq surge

Sunni and Shia Baghdad compared

"[I]n Adhamiya, a [Baghdad] community with a Sunni majority, any semblance of normal life vanished more than a year ago.
. . . Anyone who works with the government, whether Shiite or Sunni, is an enemy in the eyes of the Sunni insurgents, who carry out attack after attack against people they view as collaborators. While that chiefly makes targets of the Shiite-dominated Iraqi Army and the police, the militants also kill fellow Sunnis from government ministries who come to repair water and electrical lines in Sunni neighborhoods.
. . . It adds up to a bleak prognosis for Sunnis in Baghdad. Until the violence is under control, there is unlikely to be any progress. But it is hard to persuade Sunnis to take a stand against the violence when they seem to receive so little in return.
. . . The head of the district council was gunned down 10 days ago; three months earlier his predecessor was killed the same way.
The council had been a beacon for beleaguered Adhamiya residents, its offices busy from early morning. But its members are under attack, and it is unclear how long they will be willing to continue to take the risks that come with helping their neighbors." [1]

In Baghdad's Sadr City, Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's "influence is everywhere. His representatives run the hospitals, the Islamic courts, the police, the municipal offices and the mosques. He pays for funerals and school books. He builds houses and controls inflation. He punishes the corrupt and those whose activities taint Islam or his privileged name.
. . . Yet Sadr's stronghold remains one of Baghdad's poorest areas. Banners proclaiming the Sadr name overlook open sewage canals, unpaved roads and crumbling buildings.
Revitalizing his city, Sadr representatives say, is a key motive behind the cleric's uneasy cooperation with his arch adversary, the U.S. military, in recent weeks. Several reconstruction projects, some U.S.-funded, are already underway.
. . . The area is home to fighters linked to death squads who have driven thousands of Sunnis from their houses. Yet children and young men play soccer here in parks with manicured grass. Crowds mingle in open-air bazaars without fear of a suicide bomber. Women walk alone to shop, while men have long conversations in outdoor cafes, a sign of normalcy that has vanished from most of Baghdad.
. . . Now, as sectarian strife transforms the nation, cleansing mixed areas, Sadr City is perhaps the best indicator of the Baghdad that is emerging from chaos. Here, Shiites walk, pray and converse, largely with other Shiites, basking in the trust afforded by mingling with their own sect." [2]

source
[1] Rubin, Alissa J. (The New York Times). Sunni Baghdad Becomes Land of Silent Ruins. March 26, 2007.
[2] Raghavan, Sudarsan. (The Washington Post). An Enclave of Normalcy in Fearful Baghdad. March 27, 2007.

posted: thursday, march 28, 2007, 12:43 AM ET

tags: iraq shiite sunni

Khalizad met insurgents / Constitution regions bad, critics say

"The senior American envoy in Iraq, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, held talks last year with men he believed represented major insurgent groups in a drive to bring militant Sunni Arabs into politics.
'There were discussions with the representatives of various groups in the aftermath of the elections, and during the formation of the government before the Samarra incident, and some discussions afterwards as well,' Mr. Khalilzad said in a farewell interview on Friday at his home inside the fortified Green Zone.
. . . An American official said it was difficult to determine whether the people Mr. Khalilzad met with really were influential representatives of insurgent groups, as they claimed.
. . . The most complex legacy of Mr. Khalilzad — and arguably the most divisive — is the Constitution, passed in a national referendum in October 2005. Sunni Arab voters overwhelmingly rejected it, but most Shiites and Kurds, who make up 80 percent of the population, supported it. That paved the way for full-term elections in December 2005.
. . . Mr. Khalilzad and his colleagues, the critics say, were so fixated on meeting the political timetable laid out by the White House that they pushed through a document that may have inflamed the Sunni-led insurgency by enshrining strong regional control. The Constitution reaffirms Sunni Arab beliefs that Shiites and Kurds want oil and territory." [1]

The new draft oil law hasn't fixed that? And what about that charge that the oil law is cheating Iraq out of much or most of its oil revenue?

source
[1] Wong, Edward. (The New York Times). U.S. Envoy Says He Had Meetings With Iraq Rebels. March 26, 2007.

related posting
Is draft oil law cheating Iraq out of revenue? March 14, 2007.

posted: thursday, march 29, 2007, 12:19 AM ET
update: thursday, march 29, 2007, 12:22 AM ET

tags: iraq zalmay khalilzad federalism oil

Sunni deputy PM bombed by insurgents

"One of Iraq's deputy prime ministers was seriously wounded Friday in a bombing that highlighted the ability of insurgents to breach heightened security in the midst of a U.S.-led crackdown in Baghdad.
The attack against Salam Z. al-Zobaee, one of the highest-ranking Sunni Arabs in the Shiite-led government, killed at least six people . . . Brig. Qassim al-Moussawi, spokesman for the Baghdad security plan, said at a news conference.
. . . Zobaee, whose lungs and stomach were punctured by shrapnel, underwent surgery at the U.S. military-run Ibn Sina Hospital in the fortified Green Zone, officials said. . . . The Islamic State of Iraq, a Sunni insurgent umbrella network that includes the group al-Qaeda in Iraq, asserted responsibility for the attack in an Internet statement [in a translation on the SITE Institute], saying Zobaee was a 'betrayer' for joining the government.
'We ask Allah . . . that this betrayer vagabond who sold his religion and his people for a small price not be safe. We say to all betrayers of the infidel al-Maliki government . . . wait for what will hurt you,' the statement said. . . . The authenticity of the statement could not be confirmed." [1]

"Mr. Zubaie is from a tribe that is part of the Anbar Salvation Council, a group of tribal leaders that has taken a stand against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the most militant of the Sunni groups in the insurgency against the Americans and the Shiite-led Iraqi government." [2]

source
[1] Brulliard, Karin & al-Izzi, Saad. (The Washington Post). Maliki Deputy Wounded in Blast. March 24, 2007.
[2] Rubin, Alissa J. (The New York Times). 9 Die as Assassins’ Blasts Wound Sunni Deputy Premier. March 24, 2007.

posted: monday, march 26, 2007, 9:02 PM ET
update: monday, march 26, 2007, 9:09 PM ET

tags: iraq salam z. al-zobaee al qaeda

Sunnis skew poll down; federalism good for Sunnis; U.S. criticized, but still wanted

In most of the questions in a poll of Iraqis by ABC News and other news organizations, the nationwide "net" percentages (Shiite-Sunni-Kurd combined) for these questions seem to be skewed downward by the highly negative responses of the Sunnis. For example, in question 1 on how life is going these days, it is said that 39% of the nationwide "net" responded that life was good. But in the sect breakdown portion of the question, 53% of Shiites (who comprise around 60% of Iraqis) and 68% of Kurds (15-20% of Iraqis) said that life was good. A mere 7% of Sunnis (15-20% of Iraqis), on the other hand, said that life was good. So the "net" percentage gets skewed way down to 39%, even though 53% of the Shiites and 68% of the Kurds, said that life was good. And this type of skewed "net" percentage is the percentage that often gets reported.

Wouldn't a more accurate description be that a majority of Iraqis say life is good with the exception being the Sunnis, comprising 15-20% of Iraqis, who overwhelmingly say that life is not good? Not only is it more clear and accurate, but it allows one to focus on potential problem areas and solutions.

Most news accounts of the poll point out this disparity between Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish responses. But I think the point should be made more strongly and pervasively. And as I said before, most of the questions in the poll seem to follow this pattern.

From the poll results, it also appears that autonomous, semi-autonomous or independent regions are gaining favor, at least among Shiites and Kurds. In question 14, 59% of Shiites and 79% of Kurds supported either regional states with a federal government or separate independent states. Only 3% of Sunnis favored either of these choices. The other choice was a "unified Iraq with central government in Baghdad" which 97% of Sunnis favored as opposed to 41% of Shiites and 20% of Kurds.

I'm not sure why the Sunnis still so strongly favor this highly centralized form of government. It seems that Iraq has been trying this type of government since the fall of Saddam and according to the poll, the Sunnis are pretty miserable on most counts. Only 24% of Sunnis have confidence in the police and only 8% have confidence in the national government. Even with their local leaders, only 12% of Sunnis have confidence. This is contrasted with 57% of Shiites and 80% of Kurds who have confidence in their local leaders with similar high percentages for the police and the national government.

And who exactly do the Sunnis want to put in charge of this highly centralized government? Saddam and most of his inner circle are either dead, in prison or in hiding. The Sunnis have no faith in their current local leaders. They don't trust the current majority Shiite national institutions. They certainly don't like the Americans. So who's left?

The Sunnis' current view of their situation seems pretty hopeless. (Perhaps a reflection of their dire situation.) It's possible that the remaining Baathists could take charge, but the Shiites and Kurds seem reluctant to letting Baathists back into most positions of power, let alone letting them run the country again.

On the other hand, with an autonomous, semi-autonomous or independent region, the Sunnis could possibly let the Baathists run things in their Sunni region, if they wanted, as long as they weren't hostile towards the Shiite and Kurdish regions. (They would have to do a better job of chosing their leaders than they are apparently doing now, however. Perhaps they could get some help in this area.) But the possibility of some level of autonomy doesn't seem to appeal to the Sunnis.

But it should since the future looks good for a cooperative, accommodating Sunni population. The oil law seems like it has a good chance of passing, so the Sunnis would have all that oil revenue coming in to build any type of relatively peaceful region they wanted with their own trusted security forces and providers of basic services. It doesn't appear that Iraq is going to break into independent states anytime soon, so there would still be a central, federal government that they could turn to if they needed help. And based on their similar population numbers, the Sunnis would have as much power on the federal level as the Kurds who seem to be satisfied with their current power level. And having federalized regions doesn't mean that the different regions have to be isolated from one another either. They could be as close or as distant as they chose to be, respecting basic rights at all times, of course. Why wouldn't the Sunnis want that for themselves? Why is that such a bad choice?

One thing the poll says that Sunnis and Shiites generally agree on is their negative impression of America's role in Iraq. Though they still apparently would like the U.S. to stay until the security situation improves. The Kurds support the U.S.

source
ABC News. ABC News/USA Today/BBC/ARD poll -Iraq: Where things stand. Ebbing hope in a landscape of loss marks a national survey of Iraq. March 19, 2007.

posted: friday, march 23, 2007, 8:36 PM ET
update: monday, march 26, 2007, 11:38 PM ET

tags: iraq usa today bbc ard abc poll sunni federalism

Surge update: Sunnis violent, Shiites quieter, Baghdad violence down

"In recent months, al-Qaeda in Iraq and other Sunni groups have begun to use more sophisticated tactics, downing U.S. helicopters and staging large attacks that have claimed the lives of hundreds of Iraqi civilians.
Meanwhile, the Mahdi Army, the largest and most violent Shiite militia, headed by anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has faded from neighborhoods it once visibly controlled. Sadr, whose forces have fiercely battled U.S. troops, appears to be cooperating with the security plan, although a statement attributed to him and released Sunday warned that the plan 'will not be good if it is controlled and ruled by our enemies, the occupiers.'
Mahdi Army militiamen 'have certainly reduced their activities in the past couple of weeks,' said Lt. Col. Scott Bleichwehl, a U.S. military spokesman. 'What is their long-term intention? It is absolutely too early to tell.' " [1]

"The new Baghdad security operation . . . has led to a sharp drop in violence in the capital." [2]

source
[1] Raghavan, Sudarsan. (The Washington Post). Sunni Insurgents Ascendant in Iraq's Caldron of Violence. March 3, 2007.
[2] Reid, Robert H. & Abdul-Zahra, Qassim. (The Associated Press). Iraq PM Vows Cabinet Shakeup in 2 Weeks. March 3, 2007.

posted: sunday, march 4, 2007, 8:48 PM ET
update: sunday, march 4, 2007, 9:40 PM ET

tags: iraq shiite sunni surge

Anti-Qaeda mosque bombed; Habbaniyah resists al-Qaeda's strict Islam

"During what turned out to be the last Friday prayer he led, Imam Mohammad al-Marawi urged worshipers at a Sunni mosque in the western city of Habbaniyah to stand firmly against al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni insurgent group that has a strong following in the area.
. . . Less than 24 hours later, someone in a Mercedes truck drove up next to the mosque and detonated explosives hidden under a load of stone and marble.
. . . [W]itnesses said that unlike other large attacks, this one did not appear to have been driven by sectarian rivalries . . . but rather was probably carried out as a warning from Sunni extremists to Sunnis who support the U.S.-backed Iraqi government.
Tribal leaders in Habbaniyah and other Sunni insurgent strongholds in volatile Anbar province have tried to mobilize civilians against al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has sought to impose strict Islamic code in several regions and has frequently attacked U.S. and Iraqi forces.
. . . Despite warnings from Sunni insurgents, women in Habbaniyah are not forced to cover their hair with the traditional hijab, and residents are free to use the Internet and cellphones."

source
Londono, Ernesto. (The Washington Post). At Least 40 Die in Bombing At Sunni Mosque in W. Iraq. February 25, 2007.

posted: tuesday, february 27, 2007, 11:11 AM ET
update: tuesday, february 27, 2007, 12:02 PM ET

tags: iraq al qaeda sunni islam federalism

Sunni extremists enforce strict Islam in Tarmiyah, some say

"Sunni extremists have dramatically altered the fabric of the region in recent months, said a 35-year-old shop owner who lives across the street from the military outpost in Tarmiyah, [a city north of Baghdad].
'You can no longer find someone selling cigarettes, and you won't find men selling women's underwear,' he said, offering an example of strict Islamic codes enforced in the area. Women now cover everything but their eyes and 'barbers can't offer modern haircuts,' added the man, who confirmed the version of the attack provided by Iraqi officials."

source
Londono, Ernesto & Ricks, Thomas E. Ricks. (The Washington Post). Brazen Pre-Dawn Attack on U.S. Outpost in Iraq Kills 3, Injures 17. February 20, 2007.

posted: wednesday, february 21, 2007, 7:50 PM ET

tags: iraq sunni

Draft oil law to Cabinet; Oil, gas found in Sunni area

"A draft version of the long-awaited law that would govern the development of Iraqi oil fields and the distribution of oil revenues has been submitted to Iraq’s cabinet, the first step toward approving the legislation, two members of a senior negotiating committee said this weekend.
. . . If the cabinet approves the draft law, it would then be sent to Parliament for ratification. Parliament for the most part automatically passes laws that have been approved by leaders of the main political parties, which run along ethnic and sectarian lines." [1]

"Huge petroleum deposits have long been known in Iraq’s Kurdish north and Shiite south. But now, Iraq has substantially increased its estimates of the amount of oil and natural gas in deposits on Sunni lands after quietly paying foreign oil companies tens of millions of dollars over the past two years to re-examine old seismic data across the country and retrain Iraqi petroleum engineers.
The development is likely to have significant political effects: the lack of natural resources in the central and western regions where Sunnis hold sway has fed their disenchantment with the nation they once ruled. And it has driven their insistence on a strong central government, one that would collect oil revenues and spread them equitably among the country’s factions, rather than any division of the country along sectarian regional boundaries." [2]

sources
[1] Glanz, James. (The New York Times). Draft Law on Oil Money Moves to Iraqi Cabinet. February 19, 2007.
[2] Glanz, James. (The New York Times). Iraqi Sunni Lands Show New Oil and Gas Promise. February 19, 2007.

posted: tuesday, february 20, 2007, 6:03 PM ET

tags: iraq oil sunni

Insurgents should be part of government, Sunni VP says

"Sunni insurgents who are 'honorable and genuine' must be given the chance to join the political process, Iraq's Sunni vice president said in an interview published Friday.
Tariq al-Hashemi told the Arabic language daily Al-Hayat that U.S. and Iraqi representatives must negotiate 'with the participation of the resistance' after 'America has failed to run the country.'
Furthermore, al-Hashemi said 'the honorable national resistance' must adopt 'a new ideology to manage the crisis.'
. . . He also criticized the militant Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars, accusing it of meddling in politics and rejecting the notion it represents Iraq's Sunni Arabs. Many Association figures are believed closely linked to insurgents.
His criticism drew a sharp response from the association's spokesman, Sheik Mohammed Bashar al-Fayadh, who told Al-Arabiyah television that al-Hashemi's comments amounted to an attempt to separate religion from politics. 'This is a secularist ideology, not Islamic,' he said."

source
The Associated Press. Key Sunni Official Urges Participation. February 16, 2007.

posted: tuesday, february 20, 2007, 4:44 AM ET
update: tuesday, february 20, 2007, 4:45 AM ET

tags: iraq insurgency sunni

Some Shiite-Sunni tension in U.S. also

"Escalating tensions between Sunnis and Shiites across the Middle East are rippling through some American Muslim communities. . . . Political splits between those for and against the American invasion of Iraq fuel some of the animosity, but it is also a fight among Muslims about who represents Islam.
. . . Some students and experts on sectarianism also attribute the fissure to the significant growth in the Muslim American population over the past few decades.
Before, most major cities had only one mosque and everyone was forced to get along. Now, some Muslim communities are so large that the majority Sunnis and minority Shiites maintain their own mosques, schools and social clubs.
. . . 'I don’t want Shiite students to feel alienated,' said Nura Sediqe, the president of the Ann Arbor student group. 'But the dominant group never sees as much of a problem as the minority.'
. . . Not all campuses have been affected. Some, like Georgetown University and Cornell University, were considered oases of tolerance."

source
MacFarquhar, Neil. (The New York Times). February 4, 2007. Iraq’s Shadow Widens Sunni-Shiite Split in U.S.

posted: tuesday, february 6, 2007, 9:27 AM ET

tags: iraq shiite sunni